Posts in category: Almonds

2025 Crop Estimate: Market Holds Firm

On April 15, TNT released its much-anticipated estimate for the 2025 almond crop, pegging it at 2.8 billion lbs. While this figure is at the higher end of industry expectations, the market reaction was notable—rather than softening, prices continued to firm, reflecting ongoing confidence and strong underlying demand.

Signs of Stability Emerging

Over the past two weeks, we’ve observed signs of stabilisation in the market. Sellers are increasingly stepping forward with offers, and we’re seeing a willingness to commit to limited volumes for the 2025 crop. This uptick in availability is a welcome sign after months of uncertainty.

Focus on the Upcoming INC Congress

All eyes are now on the annual INC Congress, set to take place next week in Mallorca (8-10 May). Last year’s discussions were dominated by concerns around a tight transition period and limited availability of certain grades, particularly Carmel Type Supremes (CTS) and smaller sizes. Early indications suggest that these themes will once again take center stage, as buyers and sellers assess the year ahead.

California: Supply and Demand Rebalancing

One key development is California’s more stable market position. After several challenging seasons marked by oversupply, supply and demand have now found a healthier balance. This improved outlook bodes well for smoother market dynamics in the months ahead.

Looking Ahead

At Helios Ingredients, we are committed to keeping you updated with the latest market insights as they unfold. We’ll be sharing further updates following the INC Congress—stay tuned as we continue to support your business with timely, relevant information.

Please get in touch with your account manager for our current and latest pricing.

The Almond Board of California has released its February Position Report, providing critical insights into current market trends, shipments, pricing, and future expectations. Here are the key highlights:

Market Overview

• Year-to-date (YTD) shipments remain flat, reflecting steady demand
• Commitments are down 8%, indicating that many buyers remain largely uncovered for future needs.
• Crop 2024 has finalized below 2.70 billion lbs, compared to the initial estimate of 3.0 billion lbs.

Pricing & Market Dynamics

• The price differential between STD5s (bottom of the market) and NPX (premium end of the market) has compressed to less than 20c/lb, the smallest gap seen since 2020.
• EU Tariffs on US Almonds: Almonds are set to be included in EU countermeasures against US tariffs on EU products.
  • While the UK takes a “wait and see” approach, tariffs could make US almonds more expensive in Europe.
  • If tariffs are implemented, almond prices may need to come down to offset the impact—a situation the market is closely monitoring.
• Despite these potential challenges, almond prices have continued to firm all week since the position report was released.

2025 Crop Expectations

• Early concerns suggest that Crop 2025 may be smaller than this year’s harvest, though it is still too early to draw conclusions.
• The industry now awaits the first official estimates next month to provide better clarity on the 2025 outlook.

Currency & Trade Update

The British Pound (GBP) continues to hold strong above 1.29, which may provide some relief for UK buyers navigating potential price fluctuations.

Helios Almond Offerings

At Helios Ingredients, we offer a range of high-quality almond products, including:

✅ Almond Paste
✅ Chopped Almonds
✅ Sliced Almonds
✅ Other Almond Varieties (available upon request)

For more information or to discuss your almond requirements, please contact us.

As we step into 2025, we hope the year has started on a positive note for all our partners and stakeholders. The Almond Board of California has just released its December shipment report, and here are the key takeaways:

Receipts

• Based on current receipts, the Industry is now moving away from the Objective Estimate of a 2.80 billion-pound crop.
• Current data suggests a revised estimate closer to 2.70 billion pounds.

Shipments

• Year-to-Date (YTD) shipments remain flat overall.
• However, domestic shipments are notably down by 20%.
• Many domestic buyers appear to be holding off as they await clarity on the potential impact of Trump’s upcoming policies. The possibility of new tariffs on international trade could benefit domestic buyers in the long term.

Commitments

• Commitments are down by 12%, signaling that there is still significant business to be conducted in the coming months.
• California sellers continue to limit forward sales to a maximum of three months. This strategy helps control supply and leverage firming prices.

Currency Impact

• The GBP has declined to 1.22 against the US Dollar, influenced by expectations surrounding Trump’s economic policies, often referred to as “Trump Economics.”

Market Outlook

The almond market is now closely watching the bloom season, which will determine its next direction. Any unfavorable news during this period has the potential to sharply drive prices upward.

We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as new developments arise. For further information or inquiries, please reach out to our team.

The past couple of weeks have been quite eventful for the almond industry. Here’s the latest update:

Objective Estimate Surprises the Industry

On 10th July, the USDA released the Objective Estimate for the 2024 almond crop, which came in at 2.8 billion lbs. This figure surprised the industry, as many were expecting an estimate closer to or above May’s Subjective Estimate of 3.0 billion lbs.

Market Reaction and Buyer Behavior

Many buyers had been holding off on purchasing, anticipating that prices would drop based on the higher expected estimates. However, with the Objective Estimate coming in lower, the market moved in the opposite direction, leading to strong demand as buyers scrambled to cover their Q4 requirements.

Implications for Supply

It’s important to note that new crop Carmels are unlikely to arrive in the UK before late December. This delay in supply could impact availability and pricing in the coming months.

What This Means for You

Given the current market conditions and the potential delay in new crop arrivals, we recommend our customers consider securing their almond supplies sooner rather than later. The lower-than-expected Objective Estimate and subsequent market reaction indicate that prices may continue to rise as demand remains strong.

We look forward to your inquiries and are here to provide any further information you may need.

The almond market has been experiencing significant upward movement since the release of the last Position Report. The lack of availability in the current crop is driving this trend, affecting both current and new crop prices.

Market Dynamics

• Current Crop Availability: The market has been seeing a scarcity in current crop supplies. This has led to increased prices, especially for specific grades like CTS (California Type Supreme) and NPX (Nonpareil Extra), as well as for smaller sizes.
• Customer Demand: There are notable gaps in customer coverages, leading to limited offers and heightened demand.
• US Packers’ Position: US packers are exercising caution regarding current crop offers. They prefer to wait until they have a clear picture of available supplies. With new crop prices on the rise, packers are also hesitant to make new offers. This strategy is understandable as they aim to maximize revenues after a period of selling at or below cost.

Looking Ahead

While the current situation is challenging, there is an expectation that almond supplies will increase in a few months. However, for the time being, packers are focused on optimizing their earnings from the current market conditions.

Key Date

The USDA-NASS is set to release its second production estimate for the 2024 Almond Crop on July 10th, 2024. This report will provide crucial insights into future market trends and availability.

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and keep you updated with any significant changes. We look forward to your inquiries and are here to provide any further information you may need.

USDA NASS Subject Estimate

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released its Subject Estimate for the 2024 almond crop, forecasting a total of 3.00 billion pounds. This almond production estimate is slightly above other trade estimates, which ranged from 2.79 to 2.97 billion pounds. While the estimate aligns with market expectations, some industry analysts consider it a bit on the lower side.

Upcoming Objective Estimate for Almond Production

The Objective Estimate for almond production, which provides a more precise forecast, is scheduled for release on July 10th. This upcoming estimate will offer further insights into the almond production outlook and help stakeholders plan accordingly.

Global Almond Production Trends

Below is a table from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) showing estimated world almond production in metric tonnes. This table provides a view of almond production across different regions, offering a global perspective on supply trends:

XLI World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress. Vancouver, May 8-10, 2024

ESTIMATED WORLD ALMOND PRODUCTION

Kernel Basis. Metric Tons

Sources 2023/24: Almond Board of California, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE, Chilean Almond Board, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association and other INC sources. US 2023/24 ending stock is an INC estimate. Sources 2024/25: Aegean Exporters Association, Chilean Almond Board, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association and other INC sources.

Season 2023/2024 starts as of 2023 harvest; and 2024/2025 as of the 2024 harvest in both hemispheres.

April Almond Position Report Highlights

The April Position Report reveals several key trends in the almond market:

• Year-to-Date (YTD) Almond Shipments: Up by 4% compared to last year.
• Net New Almond Sales: Reached 219 million pounds, significantly higher than the 115 million pounds recorded at the same time last year.
• Almond Commitments: Down by 2%, indicating a slight decrease in forward contracts.

Market Tightness and Almond Availability

As we approach the arrival of new crop material, certain sizes and varieties of almonds are expected to become scarce. This is particularly true for smaller sizes, specific counts, Non Pareil Extra (NPX), and Carmel Type Supreme (CTS). Stakeholders should anticipate potential tightness in availability and plan their procurement strategies accordingly.

We look forward to your inquiries and are here to provide any further information you may need.