USDA NASS Subject Estimate
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has released its Subject Estimate for the 2024 almond crop, forecasting a total of 3.00 billion pounds. This almond production estimate is slightly above other trade estimates, which ranged from 2.79 to 2.97 billion pounds. While the estimate aligns with market expectations, some industry analysts consider it a bit on the lower side.
Upcoming Objective Estimate for Almond Production
The Objective Estimate for almond production, which provides a more precise forecast, is scheduled for release on July 10th. This upcoming estimate will offer further insights into the almond production outlook and help stakeholders plan accordingly.
Global Almond Production Trends
Below is a table from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) showing estimated world almond production in metric tonnes. This table provides a view of almond production across different regions, offering a global perspective on supply trends:
XLI World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress. Vancouver, May 8-10, 2024
ESTIMATED WORLD ALMOND PRODUCTION
Kernel Basis. Metric Tons
| 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |||||||
| COUNTRY | BEG, STOCK | CROP | TOTAL SUPPLY | ENDING STOCK | BEG, STOCK | CROP | TOTAL SUPPLY | ENDING STOCK |
| USA (MM lbs) | 800 | 2,440 | 3,240 | 500 | 500 | 2,950 | 3,450 | 600 |
| USA (MT) | 363,200 | 1,121,380 | 1,484,580 | 227,000 | 227,000 | 1,339,300 | 1,566,300 | 272,400 |
| AUSTRALIA | 30,000 | 103,381 | 133,381 | 18,000 | 18,000 | 160,000 | 178,000 | 20,000 |
| SPAIN | 15,337 | 100,000 | 115,337 | 21,914 | 21,914 | 130,000 | 151,914 | 28,863 |
| TÜRKIYE | 0 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 0 | 0 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 0 |
| CHINA | 0 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 0 | 0 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 0 |
| ITALY | 0 | 21,800 | 21,800 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 21,000 | 22,000 | 1,000 |
| PORTUGAL | 0 | 16,000 | 16,000 | 0 | 0 | 20,500 | 20,500 | 0 |
| MOROCCO | 3,000 | 18,500 | 21,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 18,000 | 20,500 | 2,500 |
| TUNISIA | 1,500 | 12,000 | 13,500 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 12,000 | 13,000 | 1,000 |
| CHILE | 0 | 12,436 | 12,436 | 0 | 0 | 9,583 | 9,583 | 0 |
| GREECE | 0 | 6,500 | 6,500 | 700 | 700 | 7,500 | 8,200 | 1,500 |
| IRAN | 1,000 | 6,000 | 7,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 | 8,000 | 2,000 |
| OTHERS | 0 | 16,000 | 16,000 | 0 | 0 | 16,000 | 16,000 | 0 |
| WORLD TOTAL | 414,037 | 1,473,997 | 1,888,034 | 274,114 | 274,114 | 1,794,883 | 2,068,997 | 329,263 |
| WORLD CONSUMPTION (T. Supply – End. Stock) | 1,613,920 |
Sources 2023/24: Almond Board of California, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE, Chilean Almond Board, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association and other INC sources. US 2023/24 ending stock is an INC estimate. Sources 2024/25: Aegean Exporters Association, Chilean Almond Board, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association and other INC sources.
Season 2023/2024 starts as of 2023 harvest; and 2024/2025 as of the 2024 harvest in both hemispheres.
April Almond Position Report Highlights
The April Position Report reveals several key trends in the almond market:
- Year-to-Date (YTD) Almond Shipments: Up by 4% compared to last year.
- Net New Almond Sales: Reached 219 million pounds, significantly higher than the 115 million pounds recorded at the same time last year.
- Almond Commitments: Down by 2%, indicating a slight decrease in forward contracts.
Market Tightness and Almond Availability
As we approach the arrival of new crop material, certain sizes and varieties of almonds are expected to become scarce. This is particularly true for smaller sizes, specific counts, Non Pareil Extra (NPX), and Carmel Type Supreme (CTS). Stakeholders should anticipate potential tightness in availability and plan their procurement strategies accordingly.
We look forward to your inquiries and are here to provide any further information you may need.